WASHINGTON - Problems such as power failures, telephone outages or water shortages are likely in China, Russia and some other large nations because of the Year 2000 technology problem, the State Department predicted yesterday.

The warnings, intended for Americans considering traveling overseas during the New Year's holiday, provided the most detailed picture to date from the U.S. government about where it anticipates trouble.

"This information will help Americans make their own decisions," Undersecretary Thomas Pickering said.

No country's Y2K situation was severe enough to issue a formal "travel warning" to discourage Americans from visiting, the State Department said. Instead, the 196 country-by-country advisories were published on the agency's Internet site - http://travel.state.gov -in updated "consular information sheets."

"The fact that we're not issuing travel warnings at this time ... may be taken by some as being reassuring," said Kevin Herbert, the department's director of overseas citizens services. "...We would do a travel warning if we thought it was dangerous to go there."

The government's most severe warnings included Russia, where it predicted likely failures with electrical and heat outages and problems with phone and financial systems and transportation.

Nearby Ukraine "appears to be unprepared" and warned of "a risk of potential disruption in all key sectors, especially the energy and electric services," the department said.

It also described possible failures in China's banking and phone systems, and said inland Chinese cities may experience power failures and other problems.

Nations in Western Europe fared better in the government assessment. Spain, France and Germany were declared "low risk," although the government said Italy should work harder on health care, telecommunications and transportation issues.

Canada and Mexico, the U.S. border countries, also were graded low risk. The government said Mexico could experience local problems with its phone system, but added that adequate manual overrides were in place for electrical or water failures.

In making its assessments, the State Department looked specifically for potential problems with health care, communications, financial services or transportation - all crucial for travelers.

"It is not our intention to impede travel or hinder tourism in any way," said John O'Keefe of the agency's office of undersecretary for management. "Nor have these analyses been geared to reflect any political considerations or the nature of the relationship between the United States and any country."

The government cited a moderate risk of telephone and power failures in Israel, adding that the nation's thousands of cellular phone customers might be affected. Japan also was declared low risk, although the State Department urged travelers with special medical needs to take precautions because of inadequate computer repairs in the country's health care system.

The task of naming which countries were likely to suffer serious failures was so sensitive that State officials refused to discuss problems in specific countries or regions.

The State Department also acknowledged that it warned foreign governments twice about how they would be graded before releasing the information to the American public.

The earliest drafts were finished more than three months ago, but not published until Monday- with fewer than 17 weeks before year's end - to give time to provide more information about computer repairs and to argue for more positive portrayals.

"I honestly don't know if they're unhappy or not," Herbert said. "Even if they were, that's not what dictates what goes into the consular information sheets."