Gore pulling closer to electoral majority
WASHINGTON - Al Gore has pulled closer to the 270 electoral
votes needed to claim the presidency, generating momentum in battleground
states from his rival's mistakes and the public's growing preference for
issues over personality, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
In more than three dozen interviews this week, Democratic, Republican
and independent political analysts concluded the race is still highly
competitive. But they said Texas Gov. George W. Bush must move quickly
to keep the vice president from opening a formidable lead.
Across the country, Republicans expressed frustration with their
nominee's campaign.
''People like George W. Bush, but the issue in people's minds is,
'Is he up to the job?''' said Craig Berkman, former chairman of the Oregon
GOP. He said Bush must answer the question in debates against Gore. The
first of three debates is set for Oct. 3.
The vice president has made modest but steady gains against Bush
since Labor Day, when an AP survey found 14 states and the District of
Columbia leaning Gore's way or solidly in his column. An additional 22
states tilted toward Bush, leaving a wide open race concentrated in the
Midwest battlegrounds of Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin as well
as Pennsylvania.
Since then, Gore has emerged from a dead heat in national polls to
gain an edge in many surveys. In the all-important state-by-state race
for electoral votes, Pennsylvania has moved from the tossup category to
the lean-Gore column. Colorado, a lean-Bush state two weeks ago, is now
a tossup.
That gives Gore 15 states plus the District of Columbia for 224 electoral
votes - 46 short of the 270 required for victory. If the election were
held today, Bush would claim 21 states for 171 electoral votes.
An additional 14 states and 143 electoral votes are toss-ups. Analysts
say Gore has momentum that could soon tilt a number of the most competitive
states to the Democrat, including Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Washington.
''The longer the campaign goes on without a shift to Bush, the harder
it is to find a reason that such a shift will occur,'' said Dave Rohde,
political science professor at Michigan State University.
The trend is striking in Missouri, a state with Bush leanings until
recent weeks. Republicans and Democrats alike say the state, which traditionally
votes for the winner, is on the verge of falling into Gore's column.
''He should focus on how Al Gore is way too left for Missouri, but
they haven't done that effectively,'' said John Russell, the senior GOP
senator in the Missouri legislature. ''If the election were today, and
I'm a Bush backer, it would be a tossup and Gore could win.''
''Michigan is listing Gore's way,'' said Craig Ruff, president of
a Lansing, Mich., political think tank.
In Washington state, independent pollster Stuart Elway compared Gore
to a baseball player coming out of a summer-long dry spell - his polling
now gives an edge to the vice president. ''He can't miss. Bush can still
win here, but he has to come out of his slump,'' Elway said.
Ohio is Bush's best bet in the Midwest, yet GOP polls show the race
has evened up since Labor Day.
The latest Pennsylvania poll gave Gore a 13-point lead. Though few
analysts think the margin is that large, internal polling for both parties
leans toward Gore.
''Gore has now made himself acceptable to more voters here,'' said
Terry Madonna, a political science professor at Millersville University
in Pennsylvania.
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